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1 million new Mac users?

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AppleInsider is reporting that there have been over one million converts to the Macintosh platform so far in 2005.

I'm not entirely convinced that they're all converts. It's assuming
that all of the growth is from Windows users switching, which I don't
buy. At least some of the growth has to be from multi-computer
households, either existing Mac households buying an additional Mac or
a Windows household adding a Mac. I'm not going to go so far as to
guess what percentage of that 1mil is that, but I think that it's a
non-negligible number.

How much of the growth is due to a previously computer-free
household buying their very first computer? Although it's hard for me
to imagine a computer-free lifestyle, only about 2/3s of US households
have a computer, and just over half have Internet accesss [1]. I wonder
if a household that is going to buy its first computer is more likely
to buy a Mac or a Windows machine. On one hand, Windows is ubiquituous;
on the other, Mac might appear more approachable, especially with the
immense popularity of the iPod.

The reasons behind a switch are two-fold: increased brand awareness
due to the immense popularity of the iPod and the perceived safety of
the Macintosh operating system. I'm not going to argue whether the
perceived safety of the Mac is due to its small market share, and
whether that will change when more people move to the Mac.

I wonder how the upcoming MacTels will affect the switching rate, if
at all. Will it be easier for application developers to port their apps
to Mac? Will they have more incentive to do it, both with a potential
larger market and a potential easier port?

I also wonder how a large number of switchers affects the
expectations that users have of the platform. Will they have an issue
switching between the two UI paradigms? Will they be upset that the Mac
is now two expansion packs behind for The Sims 2?

[1] Computer and Internet Use in the United States: 2003 (PDF), US Census Bureau, published Oct 2005.

Comments

  • Anonymous
    November 08, 2005
    >Will they be upset that the Mac is now two expansion packs behind for The Sims 2?

    If the new MacIntel have dual boot, they won't be upset. They'll just use the WIndows version of the Sims 2 ;-)